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June 2009: Portland Real Estate Report: What's Happening?
A note about my statistics:
They are a comparison of May 2008 - May 2009 for all of Multnomah County and are taken directly from the RMLS. What follows is my own analysis of these statistics. For our purposes, I thought it best to analyze Multnomah County as a whole. Each neighborhood, however, is a little micro-universe and has its own market. Changing the parameters of the zip codes, price variables, or time periods can lead to very different results. This analysis is of all homes sold in all price ranges in Multnomah County. If you have any questions about specific zip codes, or any questions about the market in general, please reply to this forum with those questions or feel free to contact me at: http://www.propertiesofportland.com. Since Portland is a neighborhood city, you can now search by "Irvington, Alberta, etc.". You can check it out here: http://www.propertiesofportland.com/index.cfm/page/51539/parent/426...
What's Happening?
Like last month, we have an increase in closed and pending sales! Although the increase in closed sales is small, it is still in the right direction... up. Inventory has increased due to people who were waiting to list their house in the spring and summer. As the summer progresses, I predict a further surge in sales, especially among first time homebuyers who will be scrambling to get the best homes before the November deadline. For those of you who have been keeping up with this blog, you know what I'm talking about. For information on what this means, click here: http://community.portlandneighborhood.com/forum/topics/firsttime-ho...
In my own business, I have seen an upsurge in higher priced home sales as well. Last week I helped a client get an offer accepted for a home in a much higher price range. We were up against 2 other buyers who all were willing to pay full price for the home. I hadn't been in that situation for that price range in quite awhile, especially when jumbo loans were difficult to obtain. Now, however, it seems that the Portland market is balancing out and, if a home is priced correctly, it will sell, possibly with multiple offers.
It is nice to see the market being more balanced and sane than the craziness we have experienced in the last two years. It will be interesting to see if this is a real recovery or a seasonal bump. My feeling is that things are really improving. I'm not going to quote economic indicators. My feeling about this is due to the psychological shift that I have seen happen in the last six months. It has been a clear change from despair (which prevailed for at least the last year and a half) to excitement.
On to the report:
Another month of increased sales, both pending and closed! Inventory is up due to sellers who waited for the warmer months to list.
Yearly change from May 08 to May 09:
For Sale: 4109 in May 08, 3667 in May 09. Inventory is DOWN 10.8%
Sold homes: 665 sold in May 08, 457 sold in May 09. Sales have fallen 31.3%.
Pending sales: 675 pending for sale in May 08, 655 pending for sale in April 09. Pending sales have fallen 3%
Chart for average price per square footage:
Price per square footage has dropped from last year, however, it seems to have relatively leveled off to be in the range of $140-$150 per sq. foot. Although this gives you a general idea of the market, it won't help you as a buyer or seller. You need to narrow the criteria down to neighborhood and comparable type of home. Email me if you would like a specific report.
Yearly change from May 08 to May 09:
Average price per square foot in May 08 was $170. In May 09 it is $147. This figure has dropped 13.5%
Days on market and sold/list price %:
This chart is showing us two things. First, how many days on the market that a home is spending, on average, before being sold. In all of Multnomah County, in all price ranges, a home is taking, on average, 67 days to sell. This is a relatively low number compared to the rest of the country.
The other thing that this chart shows is what percentage of listing price the home, on average, is selling at. This is a great indicator of pressure on prices. As you can see from this chart, things have improved slightly for sellers, who are now getting, on average, 97% of their asking price.
Yearly change from May 08 to May 09:
Average time it takes to sell a home in May 08 was 55 days. In May 09, it is 67 days. The time has increased 21.8%
The percentage of listing price that was paid was 98% in May 08 and is 97% in May 09. There is a 1% decrease.
Average price for sale vs. average price of sold:
Since June of 2008, there has been a steady decrease in the average home listed. For the past 5 months, however, this figure has stabilized as higher sales are giving sellers in higher price ranges more confidence. The average price of a home that has sold is firmly in the first time homebuyers range, reflecting the surge in sales of this segment of the market.
Yearly change from May 08 to May 09:
The average price of a home listed in May 08 was $417,000. In May 09, $389,000. This figure has decreased by 6.7%.
The average price of a home sold in May 08 was $346,000. In May 09 it was $289,000 This figure has decreased by 16.5%.
Months of inventory:
Months of inventory gives a timeline of how long it would take for all of the current listings to sell. Anything above 6 months is considered a buyers market. After months of seeing this figure go up, we are finally seeing a decline in inventory. In May 2009, this figure was 8 months. This does NOT mean that it will take, on average, 8 months for your home to sell. That number was 67 days, remember? It means that, if not a single listing were to come on the market in Multnomah County from this moment, it would take 8 months for all available homes to sell before there would be nothing left.
Yearly change from May 08 to May 09:
The months of inventory in May 08 were 6.2 months. In May 09, it is 8 months. This figure has increased by 29%.
Portland never crashed in the way that much of the country has. For many reasons (urban growth boundary, comparatively low number of foreclosures, continued influx of new residents, the fact that Portland is AWESOME), we have some insulation from the chaos. Nonetheless, things did slow down greatly. We now seem to be reversing that trend and climbing out of the downturn. It will be interesting to see what happens through the summer and as we near the deadline for the $8000 stimulus refund for buying a house (Nov. 30th).
As I have said before, none of this information matters if you have a particular neighborhood in mind since Portland neighborhoods are their own micro-markets. If you have one in mind to buy or are selling your home, please request a report for that neighborhood and I am happy to post it on this blog or send it to you.
Hey people, I want to know what you think of these reports. Too many stats? Just right? Something missing? Let me know so I can make these more useful for you. What are your thoughts about real estate right now? What do you think of the information in this report? Post to this blog so we can discuss.
Visit my website where you can contact me and search all Portland Metro Area listings from the RMLS: http://www.propertiesofportland.com
They are a comparison of May 2008 - May 2009 for all of Multnomah County and are taken directly from the RMLS. What follows is my own analysis of these statistics. For our purposes, I thought it best to analyze Multnomah County as a whole. Each neighborhood, however, is a little micro-universe and has its own market. Changing the parameters of the zip codes, price variables, or time periods can lead to very different results. This analysis is of all homes sold in all price ranges in Multnomah County. If you have any questions about specific zip codes, or any questions about the market in general, please reply to this forum with those questions or feel free to contact me at: http://www.propertiesofportland.com. Since Portland is a neighborhood city, you can now search by "Irvington, Alberta, etc.". You can check it out here: http://www.propertiesofportland.com/index.cfm/page/51539/parent/426...
What's Happening?
Like last month, we have an increase in closed and pending sales! Although the increase in closed sales is small, it is still in the right direction... up. Inventory has increased due to people who were waiting to list their house in the spring and summer. As the summer progresses, I predict a further surge in sales, especially among first time homebuyers who will be scrambling to get the best homes before the November deadline. For those of you who have been keeping up with this blog, you know what I'm talking about. For information on what this means, click here: http://community.portlandneighborhood.com/forum/topics/firsttime-ho...
In my own business, I have seen an upsurge in higher priced home sales as well. Last week I helped a client get an offer accepted for a home in a much higher price range. We were up against 2 other buyers who all were willing to pay full price for the home. I hadn't been in that situation for that price range in quite awhile, especially when jumbo loans were difficult to obtain. Now, however, it seems that the Portland market is balancing out and, if a home is priced correctly, it will sell, possibly with multiple offers.
It is nice to see the market being more balanced and sane than the craziness we have experienced in the last two years. It will be interesting to see if this is a real recovery or a seasonal bump. My feeling is that things are really improving. I'm not going to quote economic indicators. My feeling about this is due to the psychological shift that I have seen happen in the last six months. It has been a clear change from despair (which prevailed for at least the last year and a half) to excitement.
On to the report:
Another month of increased sales, both pending and closed! Inventory is up due to sellers who waited for the warmer months to list.
Yearly change from May 08 to May 09:
For Sale: 4109 in May 08, 3667 in May 09. Inventory is DOWN 10.8%
Sold homes: 665 sold in May 08, 457 sold in May 09. Sales have fallen 31.3%.
Pending sales: 675 pending for sale in May 08, 655 pending for sale in April 09. Pending sales have fallen 3%
Chart for average price per square footage:
Price per square footage has dropped from last year, however, it seems to have relatively leveled off to be in the range of $140-$150 per sq. foot. Although this gives you a general idea of the market, it won't help you as a buyer or seller. You need to narrow the criteria down to neighborhood and comparable type of home. Email me if you would like a specific report.
Yearly change from May 08 to May 09:
Average price per square foot in May 08 was $170. In May 09 it is $147. This figure has dropped 13.5%
Days on market and sold/list price %:
This chart is showing us two things. First, how many days on the market that a home is spending, on average, before being sold. In all of Multnomah County, in all price ranges, a home is taking, on average, 67 days to sell. This is a relatively low number compared to the rest of the country.
The other thing that this chart shows is what percentage of listing price the home, on average, is selling at. This is a great indicator of pressure on prices. As you can see from this chart, things have improved slightly for sellers, who are now getting, on average, 97% of their asking price.
Yearly change from May 08 to May 09:
Average time it takes to sell a home in May 08 was 55 days. In May 09, it is 67 days. The time has increased 21.8%
The percentage of listing price that was paid was 98% in May 08 and is 97% in May 09. There is a 1% decrease.
Average price for sale vs. average price of sold:
Since June of 2008, there has been a steady decrease in the average home listed. For the past 5 months, however, this figure has stabilized as higher sales are giving sellers in higher price ranges more confidence. The average price of a home that has sold is firmly in the first time homebuyers range, reflecting the surge in sales of this segment of the market.
Yearly change from May 08 to May 09:
The average price of a home listed in May 08 was $417,000. In May 09, $389,000. This figure has decreased by 6.7%.
The average price of a home sold in May 08 was $346,000. In May 09 it was $289,000 This figure has decreased by 16.5%.
Months of inventory:
Months of inventory gives a timeline of how long it would take for all of the current listings to sell. Anything above 6 months is considered a buyers market. After months of seeing this figure go up, we are finally seeing a decline in inventory. In May 2009, this figure was 8 months. This does NOT mean that it will take, on average, 8 months for your home to sell. That number was 67 days, remember? It means that, if not a single listing were to come on the market in Multnomah County from this moment, it would take 8 months for all available homes to sell before there would be nothing left.
Yearly change from May 08 to May 09:
The months of inventory in May 08 were 6.2 months. In May 09, it is 8 months. This figure has increased by 29%.
Portland never crashed in the way that much of the country has. For many reasons (urban growth boundary, comparatively low number of foreclosures, continued influx of new residents, the fact that Portland is AWESOME), we have some insulation from the chaos. Nonetheless, things did slow down greatly. We now seem to be reversing that trend and climbing out of the downturn. It will be interesting to see what happens through the summer and as we near the deadline for the $8000 stimulus refund for buying a house (Nov. 30th).
As I have said before, none of this information matters if you have a particular neighborhood in mind since Portland neighborhoods are their own micro-markets. If you have one in mind to buy or are selling your home, please request a report for that neighborhood and I am happy to post it on this blog or send it to you.
Hey people, I want to know what you think of these reports. Too many stats? Just right? Something missing? Let me know so I can make these more useful for you. What are your thoughts about real estate right now? What do you think of the information in this report? Post to this blog so we can discuss.
Visit my website where you can contact me and search all Portland Metro Area listings from the RMLS: http://www.propertiesofportland.com
Tags: homes, oregon, pdx, portland, portland oregon, portland oregon real estate, portland real estate, propertiesofportland.com, rmls, ross seligman
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